The Unpredictability of Elections
Neil Gonsalves | The shifting demographics in Durham Region, Ontario, Canada may have significant impact on the upcoming by-election
“Talk is cheap, voting is free; take it to the polls." - NANETTE L. AVERY
After ten years as the Member of Parliament for the Durham Riding, former Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole decided to resign and vacate his seat. It opens the door to a by-election that will bring new representation to Ottawa.
A little history from Durham, Ontario
“Since its inception Durham has been represented by the Conservative Party for 84 of the 119 year”
The federal seat in Durham has been consistently held by a conservative candidate since 2004. In fact, dating back to 1904 when the electoral district was first contested, the Conservatives have faired significantly better than the Liberals in this riding - since its inception Durham has been represented by the Conservative Party for 84 of the 119 years (1). That said, the next conservative candidate would be ill advised to consider the riding a lock and should be prepared to appeal to an ever shifting population demographic in the region. Likewise left-leaning candidates would benefit from recognizing the diversity of viewpoints that exist among minority populations.
Appealing to the new voters in the region will be essential to securing their support. The riding of Milton, Ontario may offer an essential lesson in electoral unpredictability.
A lesson from Milton, Ontario
A federal redistribution took effect for Milton by the 2015 election which the Conservative Party won, but they have lost every subsequent election thereafter. In 2015, Lisa Raitt of the Conservative Party won the riding with 22,378 votes (2). In 2019, she secured an almost identical number of votes and still lost the riding by almost 9,000 votes to the Liberal Party candidate, Adam Van Koeverden (3). In the space of four years the number of eligible voters in Milton increased by 13,000 - If Raitt secured the same voters she had in the previous election, it suggests that the Conservative Party was unable to grow their base in that riding, the failure to appeal to Milton’s newest residents arguably cost the Conservative Party a federal seat - one they are yet to recover given Van Koeverden retained his seat in 2021 with an even larger margin over the next Conservative Party candidate, Nadeem Akbar.
The riding of Durham will experience a federal redistribution in 2024, with new boundaries and a new name. According to the 2021 Census, the population for Durham Region has increased significantly since 2016. All the municipalities in Durham (except Scugog) experienced population growth; The region’s growth outpaced the neighbouring regions of York, Toronto, and Peel (4). Over 70% of Durham Region’s population growth was through immigration (5). - The similarities make Milton a relevant case study for that reason.
Learning from Milton
Giving consideration to the shifting demographics and the population growth in Durham, candidates will need to appeal to both long standing and new residents of Durham to ensure electoral success. Durham residents share a common humanity and a spirit of entrepreneurship that unites them as a community.
The Conservative Party need to widen their base and appeal to new voters including a younger demographic and immigrants. The Liberals and NDP cannot assume that minority voters are a lock. There is a diversity of thought and political ideology among immigrant communities and making the case to earn their vote is the minimum expectation.
When representing a diverse constituency, candidates do not need to pick between appealing to one demographic over another; instead they should focus on a politics of unity rather than division. - Regardless of what the politicians do within their campaigns, for all us citizens out there, the process only truly works when we exercise our civic responsibilities and engage in the democratic process.
Bio: Neil Gonsalves is an Indian-born Canadian immigrant who grew up in Dubai, U.A.E. and moved to Canada in 1995. He is an Ontario college professor, a TEDx speaker, an author and columnist. Neil has been a Durham Region resident for almost 30 years and is a passionate advocate of immigrant integration.
Notes:
Durham (federal electoral district) (Code 35014) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada.
"FORTY-SECOND GENERAL ELECTION 2015 — Poll-by-poll results: Milton". elections.ca. Elections Canada.
"FORTY-THIRD GENERAL ELECTION 2019 — Poll-by-poll results: Milton". elections.ca. Elections Canada.