Locally focused, diverse perspectives matter greatly for regional politics
Columnist Neil Gonsalves says 'elections are important, we shouldn’t make them divisive'
Written by Neil Gonsalves for Seeking Veritas on Substack; originally published on Saturday February 17th, 2024 by Metroland Media Group - On durhamregion.com - You can find the original article here.
My local riding of Durham Region is heading to the ballot box.
According to a communication from the Prime Minister's office, a by-election will be held on March 4, 2024, in the electoral district of Durham.
After 10 years as the Member of Parliament for the Durham Riding, former Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole resigned and vacated his seat. It opened the door to the upcoming by-election that will bring new representation to Ottawa.
Canadian federal politics routinely overshadows provincial and municipal elections; this focus on the national over the local may be a contributing factor to steadily declining voter turnout across Ontario.
Closer to home, Oshawa saw its lowest-ever voter turnout for a municipal election in 2022, with just 18.4 per cent of eligible voters casting a ballot. That is a troubling statistic, given that local politics has a more direct and immediate impact on our daily lives, our community, and our local economy than most things coming out of Ottawa.
A little Durham Region, Ontario history
A Conservative candidate has consistently held the federal seat in Durham since 2004. In fact, dating back to 1904, when the electoral district was first contested, the Conservatives have faired significantly better than the Liberals in this riding. Since its inception, Durham has been represented by the Conservative Party for 84 of 119 years.
That said, the next Conservative candidate would be ill-advised to consider the riding a lock and should be prepared to appeal to an ever-shifting population demographic in the region. Likewise, left-leaning candidates would benefit from recognizing the diversity of viewpoints that exists within minority populations.
The region is growing with a healthy demographic mix. Approximately 47 per cent of Durham's immigrant population arrived in Canada under the economic admissions category, while a further 35 per cent were sponsored by family.
Both factors bode well for the future, as Durham welcomes people with the capacity to contribute to economic prosperity while being rooted in family and community.
Appealing to the new voters in the region will be essential to securing their support. The riding of Milton may offer an essential lesson in electoral unpredictability.
A lesson from Milton, Ontario
A federal redistribution took effect for Milton by the 2015 election, which the Conservative Party won, but they have lost every subsequent election thereafter.
In 2015, Lisa Raitt of the Conservative Party won the riding with 22,378 votes. In 2019, she secured an almost identical number of votes and still lost the riding by almost 9,000 votes to the Liberal Party candidate, Adam Van Koeverden.
In the space of four years, the number of eligible voters in Milton increased by 13,000. If Raitt secured the same voters she had in the previous election, it suggests that the Conservative Party was unable to grow its base in that riding.
The failure to appeal to Milton's newest residents arguably cost the Conservative Party a federal seat – one they are yet to recover given Van Koeverden retained his seat in 2021 with an even larger margin over the next Conservative Party candidate, Nadeem Akbar.
The riding of Durham will experience a federal redistribution this year, with new boundaries and a new name. According to the 2021 Census, the population of Durham Region has increased significantly since 2016.
All the municipalities in Durham (except Scugog) experienced population growth. The region's growth outpaced the neighbouring regions of York, Toronto, and Peel. More than 70 per cent of Durham Region's population growth was through immigration. The similarities make Milton a relevant case study for that reason.
Unity over division
When representing a diverse constituency, candidates do not need to pick between appealing to one demographic over another; instead, they should focus on a politics of unity rather than division.
Regardless of what the politicians do within their campaigns, the process only truly works for all citizens when we exercise our civic responsibilities and engage in the democratic process.
Local politics and elections matter. We may want to ensure we don't have another record-breaking low voter turnout cycle; after all this is our community, where we live, work and play.
About the author: Neil Gonsalves is an Indian-born Canadian immigrant who grew up in Dubai, U.A.E. and moved to Canada in 1995. He is an Ontario college educator, a TEDx speaker, an author and columnist, and an advocate for new immigrant integration and viewpoint diversity.
I'm surprised the 2022 voter turnout was so low. I would have expected it to be much higher based on Oshawa being a smaller city and my impression of there being a strong sense of community.
The use of numbers/stats in this piece worked very well to make it interesting and engaging.
Thanks Neil. Vote or not vote. I think more and more people will be watching the candidates this by-election for tell-tale signs of whether they are focussed on "Me" or "We."